Friendship is the sunshine of life — the quiet radiance that makes our lives not only livable but worth living. (This is why we must use the utmost care in how we wield the word friend.) In my own life, friendship has been the lifeline for my darkest hours of despair, the magnifying lens for my brightest joys, the quiet pulse-beat beneath the daily task of living. You can glean a great deal about a person from the constellation of friends around the gravitational pull of their personhood. “Whatever our degree of friends may be, we come more under their influence than we are aware,” the trailblazing astronomer Maria Mitchell observed as she contemplated how we co-create each other and recreate ourselves in friendship. Her friend Ralph Waldo Emerson — whom she taught to look through a telescope — believed that all true friendship rests on two pillars. In his own life, he put the theory into practice in his friendship with his young protégé Henry David Thoreau (July 12, 1817–May 6, 1862) — a solitary and achingly introverted person himself, who thought deeply and passionately about the rewards and challenges of friendship.
Henry David Thoreau (Daguerreotype by Benjamin D. Maxham, 1856)
Why should I speak to my friends? for how rarely is it that I am I; and are they, then, they? We will meet, then, far away.
Several months later, just before the Christmas holidays with their cruel magnifying lens of loneliness for the lonely, he rues his inability to connect openheartedly:
My difficulties with my friends are such as no frankness will settle. There is no precept in the New Testament that will assist me. My nature, it may be, is secret. Others can confess and explain; I cannot.
Thoreau finds himself pocked with self-doubt about his ability to connect, his sense of isolation at times swelling into punitive despair:
Nothing makes me so dejected as to have met my friends, for they make me doubt if it is possible to have any friends. I feel what a fool I am.
Over and over, Thoreau anguishes with the extreme shyness and reticence of his nature, longs for a confidante beyond the diary page, longs for companionship beyond the birds and the trees. On a beautiful spring Sunday, he despairs:
I have got to that pass with my friend that our words do not pass with each other for what they are worth. We speak in vain; there is none to hear. He finds fault with me that I walk alone, when I pine for want of a companion; that I commit my thoughts to a diary even on my walks, instead of seeking to share them generously with a friend; curses my practice even. Awful as it is to contemplate, I pray that, if I am the cold intellectual skeptic whom he rebukes, his curse may take effect, and wither and dry up those sources of my life, and my journal no longer yield me pleasure nor life.
Months after publishing Walden, with its lyrical celebration of solitude, his loneliness deepens into a primal scream of longing for connection:
What if we feel a yearning to which no breast answers? I walk alone. My heart is full. Feelings impede the current of my thoughts. I knock on the earth for my friend. I expect to meet him at every turn; but no friend appears, and perhaps none is dreaming of me.
And yet this openhearted longing is itself the only real raw material of friendship — only by surrendering to it, with all the vulnerability this demands of us, do we become receptive to the longing of others, the mutual yearning for connection that is shared heartbeat of humanity. Thoreau quietly intuits this equivalence, so that when he does connect, when he does feel the warm glow of friendship envelop him, it is nothing less than an exultation:
Ah, my friends, I know you better than you think, and love you better, too.
At only twenty-four, Thoreau had arrived at a foundational fact of living — his own grand unified theory of human connection, which he spent the remainder of his short life trying, often with touching difficulty, to put into practice:
Friends are those twain who feel their interests to be one. Each knows that the other might as well have said what he said. All beauty, all music, all delight springs from apparent dualism but real unity. My friend is my real brother.
Pulsating beneath all of his uneasy reckonings is a deep-thinking, deep-feeling recognition of the essence of friendship:
The field where friends have met is consecrated forever. Man seeks friendship out of the desire to realize a home here… The friend is like wax in the rays that fall from our own hearts. My friend does not take my word for anything, but he takes me. He trusts me as I trust myself. We only need to be as true to others as we are to ourselves that there may be ground enough for friendship.
This is our paradox: We know that uncertainty is the substrate of the universe, is the crucible of creativity, is the path to truth, and yet we spend our lives searching for certainty. The word auspicious derives from the Latin auspex — one who examines the flight of birds for omens and divinations of the future. Today, our birds are made of bits — wind-up larks of our own making we call algorithms — but they serve the same function: to let us believe that we can divine the future in order to respond to it; to sedate our anxieties of living by selling us the illusion of control over the unknowable.
All power structures are prisons we choose to live inside and all prediction technologies are power structures. Prophets have always been the true governors of empires, first counsels to kings, final ventriloquists of the future.
We can never break free from the uncertainties of living, for we ourselves are bright violations of probability, but we can break free from the prison of prediction in order to be more alive: The great mercy of life is that we can change, we can reroute, we can surprise ourselves — that our future is not the computational sum of our past and our destiny not a deterministic equation but an ongoing process constantly creating itself, the way a memory reconstitutes itself with each retelling. Every algorithm that tries to tell us what we will like or do next based on what we have liked or done previously is stealing our self-respect — the respect for the fundamental capacity for self-surprise that makes life worth living — and selling it back to us at the price of the product.
How to defend this vital aspect of our humanity, of life itself, from the merchants of prediction is what Carissa Véliz explores in Prophecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI (public library) — a book that, in an epoch when it is difficult to say anything original about AI, offers a revelatory look at the prison we have chosen to live inside and a key out.
She writes:
The computer scientists of today play the same role in power and prophecy as the oracles of the ancient world, the astrologers of the Middle Ages, and the social scientists of the nineteenth century, as we will see… Prophets are merchants of prediction… Artificial intelligence is the new Oracle of Delphi. The likes of Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Eric Schmidt sharing drinks with presidents and prime ministers is reminiscent of Nostradamus advising Catherine de’ Medici, and Rasputin counseling Nicholas II.
[…]
Predictions are often power moves disguised as quests for knowledge. Even when predictions are sincere, they can create currents of political influence that change the world. They become power moves.
She offers a fascinating history of how such technologies of power became possible, became desirable, became the norm — a history that chronicles the shift from the spiritual to the statistical, from faith to blind trust:
With God gradually moving into a background position, the grip of fate loosened. Along with worldviews that could make sense of and contemplate the notion that chance might play an important role in the world, the invention of printing with movable type in the middle of the fifteenth century facilitated the development of abstract numerical thinking, and with it, scientific inquiry and bureaucratic organization.
[…]
Trust in numbers was partly born out of distrust in people.
It was not only the Church’s disapproval that led to a decline in traditional forms of divination; common people were tired of depending on experts to catch a glimpse of the future. Reading animal entrails or the flight of birds is not obvious, and astrology is technical. The opaqueness of these methods facilitated fabrication, errors, and corruption. Divinatory lots such as dice are ways of potentially communicating with the gods in an open way, visible and readable to all. They also invite asking questions about randomness and probability, which might have contributed to probabilistic thinking. But dice were unfit for purpose in the Enlightenment and beyond. Games of chance were associated with gambling and vice, and leaving decisions to pure chance was counter to rationality. Statistics came to the rescue.
After getting a kick start from astronomers, statistics developed mostly thanks to bureaucrats who were responding to challenges in public life. It was a practical endeavor, not a scientific one. Merchants, bankers, farmers, militaries, and tax officials needed to count in standardized ways. Extensive trade needs prices and measures, and therefore extensive quantification. As bureaucracies grew, standardization and public justification were necessary. There was also the question of how to hide power struggles to make them look as rational as possible. Numbers, standards, and statistics make politics and power invisible. That’s convenient to anyone wanting to justify what they do as free from values.
Behind our trust in numbers is a closely related philosophical idea: that values cannot be derived from facts.
Which, of course, they cannot. None of the things we most value — not mountains, not music, not love — can be reduced to a set a facts. Numbers and figures can contour for us what the world is — truly or falsely — but they can never shade in how to live in it, how to share it, how to reshape it into the kind of world we want to live in. Statistical probability will never tell us anything about the reach of possibility. Probability theory pioneer Marc Kac himself recognized that all creative acts — those triumphs of our humanity — spring from “a world with its own passions, elations and despairs, and it is here that… one may even hear the voice of God.”
Véliz counters the cultural myth we have been sold:
The world is not inherently statistical; we made it so by quantifying it, the better to control it.
Statistics invented society. Since the statistical regularities in phenomena like crime and suicide could not be traced to individual actions, these patterns became attributed to “society” itself. Society became a living entity, above and beyond the individuals constituting it. From 1830, these numerical regularities were interpreted as the most compelling evidence of society’s existence. Statistics invented normal people too.
[…]
Probabilistic thinking changed our views of reality (our metaphysics), how we think about what we know (our epistemology), what we count as a good argument and an explanation (our logics), and how we think of the good life (our ethics). It might have even changed the way we think about how we think.
It didn’t just change us, it killed something essential of our nature — the shimmering irregularity that makes each of us who we are, a singular constellation of atoms and story unmatched in all the history and future of the universe. She writes:
The murderers were philosophers, gamblers, mathematicians, sociologists, insurers, and, above all, bureaucrats. The murder weapons were quantification, data collection, and statistical tools like the normal curve… The motive was power, understood broadly: from astronomers wanting to predict the skies for the purposes of navigation and timekeeping, to insurers wanting to make a profit, to bureaucrats vying for authority and wanting to have more control over the population. We killed individuals with names, personalities, and idiosyncrasies. We killed valuing people for who they are, without attaching categories, numbers, or, worse, rankings to them. We killed our confidence in free will, a topic to which we will come back in chapter eight. We killed trust in people and replaced it with trust in numbers. We gained order, but it came at a price. What we lost is rarely subject to quantification. But that it cannot be quantified doesn’t mean that it didn’t exist or matter.
We do things with words, other than describe the world. Predictions are not mere assertions; they are acts in the world, and that is a further reason why they are not facts. Predictions are speech acts: assertions that do something.
[…]
When someone makes a prediction, depending on the context and their methods, as well as their will to power (what they want), they might be doing very different things: expressing their degree of confidence about something, expressing the chances of something happening in the world, expressing what they want the world to look like in the future, trying to manipulate their audience into buying what they sell, or a combination… What they are not doing, however, is uttering a true statement about the world.
[…]
Predictive societies tend toward oppression through surveillance and self-fulfilling prophecies because predictions are speech acts that are closer to commands than to truth claims.
A prediction about people has reflexive qualities, acting like a magnet that bends reality toward itself. When the force of the magnet is strong enough, the prediction becomes the cause of its becoming true.
[…]
Predictions are commands disguised as descriptions… Predictions change the reality they purport to predict, and sometimes their accuracy is evidence not of knowledge or understanding but of despotism.
Our greatest frontier of resistance is to remember that we can be the makers of our own destiny with our choices, but our choices are driven by our beliefs, which are the easiest thing to manipulate and imprison in a power structure, and therefore the first thing that must break free. Véliz — who delves deeper into these questions in this excellent Where Shall We Meet interview — insists that the key is in our hands if we keep in mind — our gloriously fractal, wildly associative, defiantly illogical mind — a few truths about being human that the prophets of prediction try to obscure:
What we deem inevitable often never comes to pass, while what we thought impossible awaits around the corner.
Spaces of indeterminacy are where creativity, humor, and innovation flourish.
Allowing defiance is the right way to treat human beings, who are ends in themselves, with their own idiosyncratic views and preferences. Every life is worth living, every life a work of art to be created much more than discovered.
We shape our ideas and our ideas shape us
Reflecting on the tapestry of paradoxes threading through our yearning for control and our vulnerability to exploitation, she asks:
Unpredictability, arising from partial knowledge, social complexity and reflexivity, scientific and technological breakthroughs, flukes, and blindness, is never going away. Given this unsettling fact of life, how should we live?
The great Polish-American mathematician Mark Kac (August 3, 1914–October 26, 1984) possessed one of the most dazzling minds of the twentieth century. In pioneering probability theory, he paved the way for a radical new conception of truth and ushered in the first generation of scientists trained to think probabilistically — a more accurate assessment of knowledge, making room for uncertainty, be it scientific or otherwise. This probabilistic mode of judgment is all the more necessary today as the growing complexity of the world is swirling us into exponentially increasing uncertainty, which we attempt to tame through artificial absolutism.
Mathematics literally saved Kac’s life. His student work earned him a post-doctoral fellowship to study abroad, so he left Poland for Johns Hopkins University in December of 1938. World War II broke out months later. His entire family, along with millions of other Jews, was killed by the Nazis.
Kac went on to lead a long and creatively fertile life — one he considered, despite this unfathomable share of misfortune, a tremendously fortunate one. “I must pay tribute to that powerful but capricious lady, Chance, who chose to bestow her beneficence on my personal life even though I spent much of my mathematical life trying to prove that she does not really exist,” he wrote with his characteristic mix of wit and wisdom in Enigmas of Chance: An Autobiography (public library) — a small, wonderful 1976 book I discovered via a passing mention in an interview with the trailblazing astronomer Vera Rubin. (Here is further proof of my longstanding conviction that literature is the original Internet — such citations, allusions, and cross-references between books are the wondrous “hyperlinks” connecting human knowledge throughout our “common record.”)
Mark Kac
Kac writes:
Creative people live in two worlds. One is the ordinary world which they share with others and in which they are not in any special way set apart from their fellow men. The other is private and it is in this world that the creative acts take place. It is a world with its own passions, elations and despairs, and it is here that, if one is as great as Einstein, one may even hear the voice of God. The two worlds are intimately and intricately connected. Jealousy, the desire for recognition and competitiveness, for example, are part of the ordinary world but they are among the forces which propel into the second. Similarly, dreams and triumphs in the second have a way of merging with less than lofty thoughts of rewards in the first.
With an eye to the particular challenge that autobiography presents to the creative person, he adds:
To create a coherent and truthful picture of life in the two disparate and yet interrelated worlds is a nearly impossible task.
In discussing his great heroes and influences, Kac delineates another dichotomy in creative culture — the bifurcation of brilliance by degree and by kind:
In science, as well as in other fields of human endeavor, there are two kinds of geniuses: the “ordinary” and the “magicians.” An ordinary genius is a [person] that you and I would be just as good as, if we were only many times better. There is no mystery as to how his mind works. Once we understand what he has done, we feel certain that we, too, could have done it. It is different with the magicians. They are, to use mathematical jargon, in the orthogonal complement of where we are and the working of their minds is for all intents and purposes incomprehensible. Even after we understand what they have done, the process by which they have done it is completely dark. They seldom, if ever, have students because they cannot be emulated and it must be terribly frustrating for a brilliant young mind to cope with the mysterious ways in which the magician’s mind works.
He points to the nuclear physicist Hans Bethe as an example of an “ordinary genius” and to Richard Feynman as a “magician.” (Kac’s distinction appears in James Gleick’s superb biography of Feynman and there is a high probability that it inspired the title of BBC’s documentary about the legendary physicist, No Ordinary Genius.) I would add Alan Turing to the “magicians” category, and of course Albert Einstein.
In the postscript, Kac considers what lends mathematics its enduring enchantment — what renders people besotted with it:
Mathematics is an ancient discipline. For as long as we can reliably reach into the past, we can find its development intimately connected with the development of the whole of our civilization. For as long as we have a record of man’s curiosity and his quest for understanding, we find mathematics cultivated and cherished, practiced and taught. Throughout the ages it has stood as an ultimate in rational thought and as a monument to man’s desire to probe the workings of his own mind.
[…]
The urge to understand and to create mathematics has always been remarkable, considering that those who have devoted their lives to the service of this aloof and elusive mistress could expect neither great material rewards nor widespread fame.
I am reminded of something Balthazaar van der Pol, a great Dutch scientist and engineer who was also a fine musician, remarked to me about the music of Bach. “It is great,” he said, “because it is inevitable and yet surprising.” I have often thought about this lovely epigram in connection with mathematics… The inevitability is, in many cases, provided by logic alone, but the element of surprise must come from an insight outside the rigid confines of logic.
This is the history of the world: revolutionaries turning into tyrants, leaders who claim to stand with the masses turning the individuals within them on each other, stirring certainties and self-righteousness to distract from the uncomfortable unknowns, from the great open question of what makes us and keeps us human, and human together.
This is also the history of the world: artists — those lighthouses of the spirit — speaking truth to power, placing imagination ahead of ideology, the soul above the self, unselfing us into seeing each other, into remembering, as James Baldwin told Margaret Mead in their epochal conversation, that “we are still each other’s only hope.”
Born in Iran months after the end of the First World War and raised by farming parents in present-day Zimbabwe, Doris Lessing (October 22, 1919–November 17, 2013) was still a girl when she sensed something deeply wrong with the unquestioned colonial system of her world, with the oppression that was the axis of that world. By the time she was a young woman — a time when our urge to rebel against the broken system is fiery but we don’t yet have the tools to rebel intelligently, don’t yet know the right questions to ask in order to tell whether the answer we are holding up as an alternative is any better or worse — she rebelled by embracing Communism as “an interesting manifestation of popular will.” Working by that point as a telephone operator in England, she joined the Communist Party. “It was a conversion, apparently sudden, and total (though short-lived),” she would later recall. “Communism was in fact a germ or virus that had already been at work in me for a long time… because of my rejection of the repressive and unjust society of old white-dominated Africa.” It didn’t take her long to see the cracks in Communism. She left the party, discovered Sufism, grew fascinated with the nascent field of behavioral psychology and its revelatory, often disquieting findings about the inner workings of the mind, of its formidable powers to act and its immense vulnerabilities to being acted upon. But she found no ready-made answer to the problem of social harmony.
And so, in that way artists have of complaining by creating, she devoted her life — almost a century of life, a century of world wars and violent uprisings, of changes unimaginable to her parents — to asking the difficult, clarifying questions that help us better understand what makes us human, how we allow ourselves to dehumanize others, and what it takes to cohere, as individuals and as societies. At 87, she became the oldest person to receive the Nobel Prize, awarded her for writing that “with scepticism, fire and visionary power has subjected a divided civilisation to scrutiny.”
In 1985, months after I was born under Bulgaria’s Communist dictatorship, Doris Lessing delivered Canada’s esteemed annual Massey Lectures, later adapted into a series of short essays under the haunting title Prisons We Choose to Live Inside (public library) — a searching look at how it is that “we (the human race) are now in possession of a great deal of hard information about ourselves, but we do not use it to improve our institutions and therefore our lives,” lensed through a lucid faith that we have all the power, urgency, and dignity we need to choose otherwise, to use what we have learned about the worst of our nature to nurture and magnify the best of our nature, to figure out “how we behave so that we control the society and the society does not control us.”
In a sentiment Rebecca Solnit would echo three decades later in her modern classic Hope in the Dark, Lessing writes:
This is a time when it is frightening to be alive, when it is hard to think of human beings as rational creatures. Everywhere we look we see brutality, stupidity, until it seems that there is nothing else to be seen but that — a descent into barbarism, everywhere, which we are unable to check. But I think that while it is true there is a general worsening, it is precisely because things are so frightening we become hypnotized, and do not notice — or if we notice, belittle — equally strong forces on the other side, the forces, in short, of reason, sanity and civilization.
To be realistic about our own nature, Lessing argues, requires attentiveness to both of these strands — the destructive and the creative. This is the cosmic mirror Maya Angelou held up to humanity in her stunning space-bound poem, urging us to “learn that we are neither devils nor divines.” An epoch before her, Bertrand Russell — also a Nobel laureate in Literature, though trained as a scientist — reckoned with our twin capacities to define them in elemental terms — “We construct when we increase the potential energy of the system in which we are interested, and we destroy when we diminish the potential energy.” — and in existential terms: “Construction and destruction alike satisfy the will to power, but construction is more difficult as a rule, and therefore gives more satisfaction to the person who can achieve it.”
Our sanity, Lessing observes, lies in “our capacity to be detached and unflattering about ourselves” — and in the understanding that our selves are not islanded in time but lineages of beliefs and tendencies with roots much longer than our lifetimes, not sovereign but contiguous with all the other selves that occupy the particular patch of spacetime we have been born into. It is vital, she insists, that we examine ourselves — our selves, and the constellation of selves that is our given society — from various elsewheres.
This is why we need writers — those professional observers, in Susan Sontag’s splendid definition, whose job it is to “pay attention to the world” and shine the light of that attention on every side of the kaleidoscope that is a given culture at a given time. A decade after Iris Murdoch wrote in her superb reckoning with the role of literature in democracy that “tyrants always fear art because tyrants want to mystify while art tends to clarify,” Lessing writes:
In totalitarian societies writers are distrusted for precisely this reason… Writers everywhere are aspects of each other, aspects of a function that has been evolved by society… Literature is one of the most useful ways we have of achieving this “other eye,” this detached manner of seeing ourselves; history is another.
Because we are the future of our own past, the posterity of our ancestors, looking back on history from our present vantage point offers fertile training ground for looking forward, for shaping the world of tomorrow. Lessing writes:
Anyone who reads history at all knows that the passionate and powerful convictions of one century usually seem absurd, extraordinary, to the next. There is no epoch in history that seems to us as it must have to the people who lived through it. What we live through, in any age, is the effect on us of mass emotions and of social conditions from which it is almost impossible to detach ourselves.
[…]
There is no such thing as my being in the right, my side being in the right, because within a generation or two, my present way of thinking is bound to be found perhaps faintly ludicrous, perhaps quite outmoded by new development — at the best, something that has been changed, all passion spent, into a small part of a great process, a development.
This business of seeing ourselves as in the right, others in the wrong; our cause as right, theirs as wrong; our ideas as correct, theirs as nonsense, if not as downright evil… Well, in our sober moments, our human moments, the times when we think, reflect, and allow our rational minds to dominate us, we all of us suspect that this “I am right, you are wrong” is, quite simply, nonsense. All history, development goes on through interaction and mutual influence, and even the most violent extremes of thought, of behaviour, become woven into the general texture of human life, as one strand of it. This process can be seen over and over again in history. In fact, it is as if what is real in human development — the main current of social evolution — cannot tolerate extremes, so it seeks to expel extremes and extremists, or to get rid of them by absorbing them into the general stream.
Looking back on the colonialist Zimbabwe of her childhood, on the “prejudiced, ugly, ignorant” attitudes of the ruling whites, she reflects:
These attitudes were assumed to be unchallengeable and unalterable, though the merest glance at history would have told them (and many of them were educated people) that it was inevitable their rule would pass, that their certitudes were temporary.
At the center of Lessing’s inquiry is the paradox of how seemingly sound-minded, kind-hearted people get enlisted in ideologies of oppression. Kierkegaard had written in the Golden Age of European revolutions — those idealistic but imperfect attempts to unify fractured feudal duchies into free nations, attempts that modeled the possibility of a United States of America — that “the evolution of the world tends to show the absolute importance of the category of the individual apart from the crowd,” that “truth always rests with the minority, and the minority is always stronger than the majority, because… the strength of a majority is illusory, formed by the gangs who have no opinion.” An epoch and a world order later, Lessing considers how regimes of terror take hold:
Nearly everyone in such situations behaves automatically. But there is always the minority who do not, and it seems to me that our future, the future of everybody, depends on this minority. And that we should be thinking of ways to educate our children to strengthen this minority and not, as we mostly do now, to revere the pack.
The mess we have made, she intimates, may be the most effective teaching tool we have — a living admonition against doing the same, a clarion call to rebel by doing otherwise:
Perhaps it is not too much to say that in these violent times the kindest, wisest wish we have for the young must be: “We hope that your period of immersion in group lunacy, group self-righteousness, will not coincide with some period of your country’s history when you can put your murderous and stupid ideas into practice. “If you are lucky, you will emerge much enlarged by your experience of what you are capable of in the way of bigotry and intolerance. You will understand absolutely how sane people, in periods of public insanity, can murder, destroy, lie, swear black is white.”
As for us, here in the roiling mess, our sole salvation lies in learning to “live our lives with minds free of violent and passionate commitment, but in a condition of intelligent doubt about ourselves and our lives, a state of quiet, tentative, dispassionate curiosity.” Lessing writes:
While all these boilings and upheavals go on, at the same time, parallel, continues this other revolution: the quiet revolution, based on sober and accurate observation of ourselves, our behaviour, our capacities… If we decided to use it, [we may] transform the world we live in. But it means making that deliberate step into objectivity and away from wild emotionalism, deliberately choosing to see ourselves as, perhaps, a visitor from another planet might see us.
This, in fact, was the conditional clause in Baldwin’s words to Mead — in order to be “each other’s only hope,” he said, we ought to be “as clear-headed about human beings as possible.” This, too, was Maya Angelou’s conditional optimism for humanity: “That is when, and only when, we come to it” — to that “Brave and Startling Truth,” balanced on the fulcrum of our conflicted capacities, “that we are the possible, we are the miraculous, the true wonder of this world.”
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